At US$76.06, Is It Time To Put Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX) On Your Watch List?

Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX). The company's stock saw significant share price movement during recent months on the NASDAQGS, rising to highs of US$80.32 and falling to the lows of US$71.46. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Paychex's current trading price of US$76.06 reflective of the actual value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Paychex’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

View our latest analysis for Paychex

What is Paychex worth?

The stock is currently trading at US$76.06 on the share market, which means it is overvalued by 40% compared to my intrinsic value of $54.48. This means that the opportunity to buy Paychex at a good price has disappeared! Another thing to keep in mind is that Paychex’s share price is quite stable relative to the market, as indicated by its low beta. This means that if you believe the current share price should move towards its intrinsic value over time, a low beta could suggest it is not likely to reach that level anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range again.

Can we expect growth from Paychex?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Paychex, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 6.3%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in PAYX’s future outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe PAYX should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on PAYX for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Paychex, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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