Assessing nCino (NCNO) Valuation After Insight’s Exit and a New $100m Stock Buyback Program

nCino (NCNO) just landed in the spotlight after a big shareholder, Insight Holdings Group, fully exited its stake while the company rolled out a fresh 100 million dollar stock buyback program.

See our latest analysis for nCino.

At a share price of $25.68, nCino has seen a modest 1 month share price return of 5.29%, but its 1 year total shareholder return of minus 27.09% shows momentum has been fading despite solid underlying revenue growth.

If this mix of insider exits and buybacks has you reassessing your watchlist, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to uncover other interesting setups.

With shares trading about 36 percent below analyst targets but still reflecting steady growth hopes, the real question is whether nCino is quietly undervalued or if the market already reflects the next leg of expansion.

Most Popular Narrative: 27.7% Undervalued

With nCino last closing at $25.68 against a narrative fair value in the mid 30s, the gap reflects ambitious expectations for profitable growth and AI driven expansion.

The transition to a new outcome based/pricing model that is gaining customer acceptance, often pulled forward by demand for embedded AI, enables price uplifts (targeted at 10%), faster renewal cycles, and improved gross margins. All of these factors are likely to positively impact net earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady but unspectacular revenue growth can still back a premium valuation? The narrative leans on a sharp profit swing and a rich future earnings multiple. Want to see the exact assumptions behind that leap? Dive in to uncover the projections driving this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $35.54 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained competitive pressure or slower than expected international traction could derail those upbeat assumptions and force investors to reassess the growth premium.

Find out about the key risks to this nCino narrative.

Another View: Multiples Paint a Richer Picture

While the narrative fair value suggests upside, nCino trades on a price to sales ratio of about 5 times, slightly above the US software average of 4.9 times and well above its fair ratio of 3.2 times. That gap points to valuation risk, not a simple bargain. Is the growth story strong enough to close it?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own nCino Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a personalized view in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your nCino research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for your next investing move?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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