Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:JKHY)?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 13, 2022
NasdaqGS:JKHY
Source: Shutterstock

It is hard to get excited after looking at Jack Henry & Associates' (NASDAQ:JKHY) recent performance, when its stock has declined 12% over the past month. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Jack Henry & Associates' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Jack Henry & Associates

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Jack Henry & Associates is:

27% = US$359m ÷ US$1.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.27 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Jack Henry & Associates' Earnings Growth And 27% ROE

To begin with, Jack Henry & Associates has a pretty high ROE which is interesting. Additionally, the company's ROE is higher compared to the industry average of 17% which is quite remarkable. However, for some reason, the higher returns aren't reflected in Jack Henry & Associates' meagre five year net income growth average of 2.2%. That's a bit unexpected from a company which has such a high rate of return. We reckon that a low growth, when returns are quite high could be the result of certain circumstances like low earnings retention or or poor allocation of capital.

As a next step, we compared Jack Henry & Associates' net income growth with the industry and were disappointed to see that the company's growth is lower than the industry average growth of 15% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
NasdaqGS:JKHY Past Earnings Growth May 13th 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Jack Henry & Associates fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Jack Henry & Associates Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Despite having a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 43% (implying that the company retains the remaining 57% of its income), Jack Henry & Associates' earnings growth was quite low. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

Moreover, Jack Henry & Associates has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 34% over the next three years. However, the company's ROE is not expected to change by much despite the lower expected payout ratio.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Jack Henry & Associates has some positive attributes. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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