Why JFrog (FROG) Is Up 26.4% After Raising Revenue Forecasts and Launching AI Model Products

• JFrog Ltd. recently reported third-quarter earnings for 2025, posting revenue of US$136.91 million, up from US$109.06 million a year earlier, and narrowing its quarterly net loss to US$16.43 million.
• The company also raised its full-year forecast and unveiled new products focused on governance and AI model delivery, underscoring its push for growth through innovation despite persistent profitability challenges.
• We’ll explore how JFrog's above-forecast revenue guidance and momentum in cloud offerings may influence its investment narrative going forward.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

JFrog Investment Narrative Recap

For anyone considering JFrog as an investment, the central thesis centers on its positioning as a critical platform for software supply chain management and growth in the AI model delivery space. The latest earnings, which surpassed revenue guidance and narrowed losses, reinforce confidence in JFrog’s cloud momentum. However, persistent operating losses remain the main near-term risk, especially as large enterprise contracts increase volatility. The third quarter’s strong revenue outperformance materially strengthens the catalyst of cloud-driven expansion while helping offset near-term skepticism about sustainable operating leverage.

Among JFrog’s product launches, the introduction of the AI Catalog stands out as a direct play into the expanding demand for trusted AI model management and deployment. This move is closely tied to heightened enterprise focus on software supply chain security and positions JFrog to benefit from market trends that could accelerate revenue and customer growth over time. But despite the positive signals, investors should be aware that...

Read the full narrative on JFrog (it's free!)

JFrog's narrative projects $736.3 million revenue and $96.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 15.8% yearly revenue growth and a $182.7 million increase in earnings from -$86.3 million today.

Uncover how JFrog's forecasts yield a $56.44 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members submitted four fair value estimates for JFrog, ranging from US$35 to US$141 per share. With cloud revenue growth now a driving catalyst, opinions diverge widely on the company’s long-term earning potential, and you can explore several contrasting perspectives.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on JFrog - why the stock might be worth 42% less than the current price!

Build Your Own JFrog Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your JFrog research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free JFrog research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate JFrog's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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