David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ:CRNC) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Cerence
What Is Cerence's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Cerence had US$270.8m of debt, at March 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$143.6m, its net debt is less, at about US$127.2m.
How Healthy Is Cerence's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Cerence had liabilities of US$156.5m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$489.9m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$143.6m and US$48.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$454.7m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Cerence has a market capitalization of US$1.12b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While Cerence's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.4 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.9 times last year does give us pause. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. One way Cerence could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 19%, as it did over the last year. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Cerence can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Cerence recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
Happily, Cerence's impressive conversion of EBIT to free cash flow implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its EBIT growth rate is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Cerence takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. That means they are taking on a bit more risk, in the hope of boosting shareholder returns. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Cerence .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqGS:CRNC
Cerence
Provides AI powered virtual assistants for the mobility/transportation market in the United States, rest of the Americas, Germany, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and rest of the Asia-Pacific.
Fair value with mediocre balance sheet.
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