Confluent, Inc.

NasdaqGS:CFLT Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.5b

Confluent Valuation

Is CFLT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CFLT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CFLT ($28.23) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($25.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CFLT is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CFLT?

Key metric: As CFLT is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CFLT. This is calculated by dividing CFLT's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CFLT's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio10.3x
SalesUS$915.61m
Market CapUS$9.48b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CFLT's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CFLT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.9x
U Unity Software
4.6x1.3%US$9.2b
APPF AppFolio
11.8x16.2%US$9.0b
PCOR Procore Technologies
10.1x12.1%US$11.4b
KVYO Klaviyo
13x18.3%US$11.5b
CFLT Confluent
10.1x16.6%US$9.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.1x) compared to the peer average (9.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CFLT's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

68 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VYX NCR Voyix
0.6x-22.3%US$2.03b
PGY Pagaya Technologies
0.7x15.5%US$710.78m
XPER Xperi
0.9x1.8%US$454.13m
EGHT 8x8
0.5x1.5%US$352.78m
CFLT 10.3xIndustry Avg. 5.5xNo. of Companies68PS048121620+
68 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.1x) compared to the US Software industry average (5.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CFLT's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CFLT PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio10.3x
Fair PS Ratio8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CFLT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$28.23
US$32.53
+15.2%
12.2%US$40.00US$25.00n/a31
Dec ’25US$30.84
US$31.72
+2.9%
11.8%US$40.00US$25.00n/a31
Nov ’25US$26.22
US$31.53
+20.2%
11.8%US$40.00US$25.00n/a31
Oct ’25US$18.90
US$29.61
+56.7%
14.4%US$40.00US$23.00n/a30
Sep ’25US$21.22
US$30.29
+42.7%
13.1%US$40.00US$24.00n/a29
Aug ’25US$20.63
US$30.76
+49.1%
12.3%US$40.00US$25.00n/a29
Jul ’25US$28.54
US$35.30
+23.7%
10.6%US$42.00US$28.00n/a31
Jun ’25US$25.97
US$35.31
+35.9%
10.8%US$42.00US$28.00n/a30
May ’25US$28.21
US$33.97
+20.4%
12.5%US$42.00US$27.00n/a29
Apr ’25US$29.84
US$34.04
+14.1%
12.6%US$42.00US$27.00n/a29
Mar ’25US$34.30
US$33.39
-2.7%
15.0%US$42.00US$19.27n/a29
Feb ’25US$22.77
US$26.26
+15.3%
16.6%US$40.00US$19.27n/a28
Jan ’25US$23.40
US$24.89
+6.4%
14.3%US$34.00US$19.00n/a25
Dec ’24US$22.83
US$24.61
+7.8%
14.6%US$34.00US$19.00US$30.8425
Nov ’24US$28.13
US$38.24
+35.9%
11.2%US$45.00US$30.00US$26.2221
Oct ’24US$29.61
US$39.45
+33.2%
8.7%US$45.00US$30.00US$18.9020
Sep ’24US$33.25
US$39.38
+18.4%
8.6%US$45.00US$30.00US$21.2221
Aug ’24US$33.20
US$37.32
+12.4%
14.4%US$45.00US$24.00US$20.6319
Jul ’24US$35.31
US$37.16
+5.2%
14.8%US$45.00US$24.00US$28.5419
Jun ’24US$32.41
US$28.50
-12.1%
13.6%US$35.00US$20.00US$25.9720
May ’24US$21.61
US$28.32
+31.0%
13.2%US$33.00US$19.00US$28.2119
Apr ’24US$24.07
US$29.75
+23.6%
26.3%US$60.00US$19.00US$29.8420
Mar ’24US$23.61
US$29.84
+26.4%
26.9%US$60.00US$19.00US$34.3019
Feb ’24US$24.69
US$29.84
+20.9%
26.9%US$60.00US$19.00US$22.7719
Jan ’24US$22.24
US$35.82
+61.1%
25.9%US$60.00US$25.00US$23.4017
Dec ’23US$22.71
US$36.18
+59.3%
25.2%US$60.00US$25.00US$22.8317

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 20:04
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Confluent, Inc. is covered by 42 analysts. 31 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Adam ShepherdArete Research Services LLP
William PowerBaird
Raimo LenschowBarclays