Confluent Valuation
Is CFLT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
1/6Valuation Score 1/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of CFLT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: CFLT ($28.17) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($16.38)
Significantly Below Fair Value: CFLT is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CFLT?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is CFLT's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$8.95b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 10.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -20.1x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does CFLT's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 9x | ||
U Unity Software | 4.3x | 1.5% | US$9.6b |
PCOR Procore Technologies | 10.1x | 15.8% | US$10.0b |
APPF AppFolio | 12.7x | 17.4% | US$8.3b |
ESTC Elastic | 8.8x | 14.5% | US$10.7b |
CFLT Confluent | 11.5x | 17.2% | US$9.0b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.5x) compared to the peer average (9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does CFLT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.5x) compared to the US Software industry average (4.3x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is CFLT's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 11.5x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 7.6x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (11.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.6x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$28.17 | US$33.97 +20.6% | 12.5% | US$42.00 | US$27.00 | n/a | 29 |
| Apr ’25 | US$29.84 | US$34.04 +14.1% | 12.6% | US$42.00 | US$27.00 | n/a | 29 |
| Mar ’25 | US$34.30 | US$33.39 -2.7% | 15.0% | US$42.00 | US$19.27 | n/a | 29 |
| Feb ’25 | US$22.77 | US$26.26 +15.3% | 16.6% | US$40.00 | US$19.27 | n/a | 28 |
| Jan ’25 | US$23.40 | US$24.89 +6.4% | 14.3% | US$34.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 25 |
| Dec ’24 | US$22.83 | US$24.61 +7.8% | 14.6% | US$34.00 | US$19.00 | n/a | 25 |
| Nov ’24 | US$28.13 | US$38.24 +35.9% | 11.2% | US$45.00 | US$30.00 | n/a | 21 |
| Oct ’24 | US$29.61 | US$39.45 +33.2% | 8.7% | US$45.00 | US$30.00 | n/a | 20 |
| Sep ’24 | US$33.25 | US$39.38 +18.4% | 8.6% | US$45.00 | US$30.00 | n/a | 21 |
| Aug ’24 | US$33.20 | US$37.32 +12.4% | 14.4% | US$45.00 | US$24.00 | n/a | 19 |
| Jul ’24 | US$35.31 | US$37.16 +5.2% | 14.8% | US$45.00 | US$24.00 | n/a | 19 |
| Jun ’24 | US$32.41 | US$28.50 -12.1% | 13.6% | US$35.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 20 |
| May ’24 | US$21.61 | US$28.32 +31.0% | 13.2% | US$33.00 | US$19.00 | US$28.21 | 19 |
| Apr ’24 | US$24.07 | US$29.75 +23.6% | 26.3% | US$60.00 | US$19.00 | US$29.84 | 20 |
| Mar ’24 | US$23.61 | US$29.84 +26.4% | 26.9% | US$60.00 | US$19.00 | US$34.30 | 19 |
| Feb ’24 | US$24.69 | US$29.84 +20.9% | 26.9% | US$60.00 | US$19.00 | US$22.77 | 19 |
| Jan ’24 | US$22.24 | US$35.82 +61.1% | 25.9% | US$60.00 | US$25.00 | US$23.40 | 17 |
| Dec ’23 | US$22.71 | US$36.18 +59.3% | 25.2% | US$60.00 | US$25.00 | US$22.83 | 17 |
| Nov ’23 | US$25.74 | US$38.94 +51.3% | 25.0% | US$65.00 | US$30.00 | US$28.13 | 17 |
| Oct ’23 | US$23.77 | US$38.19 +60.7% | 21.5% | US$65.00 | US$30.00 | US$29.61 | 16 |
| Sep ’23 | US$25.75 | US$38.40 +49.1% | 22.0% | US$65.00 | US$30.00 | US$33.25 | 15 |
| Aug ’23 | US$25.95 | US$43.31 +66.9% | 62.0% | US$135.00 | US$27.00 | US$33.20 | 16 |
| Jul ’23 | US$24.54 | US$44.63 +81.8% | 59.2% | US$135.00 | US$27.00 | US$35.31 | 16 |
| Jun ’23 | US$20.82 | US$47.07 +126.1% | 56.5% | US$135.00 | US$28.00 | US$32.41 | 15 |
| May ’23 | US$31.24 | US$75.67 +142.2% | 33.4% | US$135.00 | US$37.00 | US$21.61 | 15 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.