Confluent (NasdaqGS:CFLT) - Share price, News & Analysis

CFLT fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

CFLT Stock Overview

Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform in the United States and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 18.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 27.64% per year

Revenue grew by 66.3% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Confluent Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Confluent
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$25.28
52 Week High	US$94.97
52 Week Low	US$16.48
Beta	0
1 Month Change	35.04%
3 Month Change	-36.21%
1 Year Change	-45.22%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-43.85%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 03

Confluent: Big Data Pioneer Attacking A $50 Billion Market

Confluent has pioneered a completely new category of data infrastructure called “data in motion”. The company has an elite team of founders from LinkedIn, which created Apache Kafka, used by 70% of the Fortune 500 today. Their customers include leading companies across various industries, such as Netflix, Walmart, Goldman Sachs, Robinhood, BMW and many more. Confluent has grown their revenue at a rapid 63% year over year and is investing aggressively into sales and marketing.

May 08

US$60.80: That's What Analysts Think Confluent, Inc. (NASDAQ:CFLT) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

A week ago, Confluent, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CFLT ) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead...

Shareholder Returns

	CFLT	US Software	US Market
7D	25.8%	9.9%	6.6%
1Y	-45.2%	-18.1%	-18.5%

Return vs Industry: CFLT underperformed the US Software industry which returned -21.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CFLT underperformed the US Market which returned -20.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CFLT's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CFLT volatility
CFLT Average Weekly Movement	14.6%
Software Industry Average Movement	11.1%
Market Average Movement	8.0%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: CFLT is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 15% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CFLT's weekly volatility (15%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2014	1,981	Jay Kreps	https://www.confluent.io

Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform in the United States and internationally. It offers Confluent Cloud, a managed cloud-native service for connecting and processing data; and Confluent Platform, an enterprise-grade self-managed software that connects and processes data in real-time with the foundational platform for data in motion. It also provides Kafka Connect that enables to build connectors to integrate Apache Kafka with other apps and data systems; ksqlDB, a database for stream processing applications; and stream governance, a solution that is designed for the intricacies of streaming data, which allows teams to expand usage of real-time data without bypassing requirements for risk management and regulatory compliance.

Confluent Fundamentals Summary

How do Confluent's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CFLT fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$7.04b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$411.26m
Revenue (TTM)	US$436.98m

16.1x

P/S Ratio

-17.1x

P/E Ratio

Is CFLT overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CFLT income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$436.98m
Cost of Revenue	US$157.81m
Gross Profit	US$279.17m
Other Expenses	US$690.43m
Earnings	-US$411.26m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-1.48
Gross Margin	63.89%
Net Profit Margin	-94.12%
Debt/Equity Ratio	129.4%

How did CFLT perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CFLT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CFLT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CFLT. This is calculated by dividing CFLT's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CFLT's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$7.04b

CFLT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	14.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-15.3x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CFLT's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

CFLT PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for CFLT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.8x

Forward PS

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16.1x) compared to the peer average (8.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CFLT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Software Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16.1x) compared to the US Software industry average (4.5x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CFLT's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CFLT PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	16.1x
Fair PS Ratio	10.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CFLT is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (10.6x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CFLT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CFLT ($25.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($30.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CFLT is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CFLT's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Confluent forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

10.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CFLT is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: CFLT is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: CFLT is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CFLT's revenue (27.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CFLT's revenue (27.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CFLT is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Past Performance

How has Confluent performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-70.8%

Last years earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CFLT is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: CFLT is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: Insufficient data to determine if CFLT's year-on-year earnings growth rate was positive over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CFLT's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: CFLT is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (27.1%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CFLT has a negative Return on Equity (-49.19%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Confluent's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CFLT's short term assets ($2.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($330.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: CFLT's short term assets ($2.2B) exceed its long term liabilities ($1.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CFLT has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if CFLT's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: CFLT has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if CFLT has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

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Dividend

What is Confluent current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CFLT's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CFLT's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CFLT's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CFLT's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CFLT has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jay Kreps (41 yo)

7.75yrs

Tenure

US$29,800,458

Compensation

Mr. Edward Kreps, also known as Jay, Co-founded Confluent, Inc. and serves as its Chief Executive Officer and Director since September 2014. He has been Chairman of the Board at Confluent, Inc. Prior to Co...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jay's total compensation ($USD29.80M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.47M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jay's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CFLT's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CFLT's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CFLT insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 10.3%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31