Is Bentley Systems (BSY) Still Undervalued As Fresh Analyst Support Casts It As A Defensive AI Play?

Fresh coverage on Bentley Systems (BSY) is drawing attention after BNP Paribas and Bank of America highlighted the company as a potential defensive AI play, citing structural advantages in its core infrastructure software markets.

See our latest analysis for Bentley Systems.

Despite fresh coverage, Bentley Systems’ recent share price performance has been mixed, with the stock down about 7% over the past 90 days and the 1 year total shareholder return declining around 42%. This underlines why some investors are rethinking the balance between its perceived defensiveness and the risks they are willing to accept at today’s US$32.44 price.

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With Bentley Systems stock down sharply over the past year, yet trading at about a 30% discount to one intrinsic value estimate and well below some analyst targets, does that mix of setback and support still skew the risk reward toward buyers?

Most Popular Narrative: 28% Undervalued

On the latest estimates, the most followed narrative assigns Bentley Systems a fair value of about $45.07 compared with the recent $32.44 share price, setting up a clear valuation gap for investors to assess.

Increasing adoption of subscription and consumption-based models (now representing >92% of revenues) provides greater revenue visibility, stability, and consistent margin expansion, which can support higher valuation multiples over time. Integration of advanced AI and reality modeling into core products (e.g., through Cesium and iTwin) enhances Bentley's ability to win larger, multi-year contracts and monetize high-value asset analytics opportunities, offering further potential for top-line and margin acceleration.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sits behind that higher fair value for Bentley Systems? The narrative leans heavily on compounding revenue growth, rising margins, and a richer mix of subscription cash flows. The assumptions are detailed, but the real tension is how far earnings and valuation multiples need to stretch to close that gap.

Result: Fair Value of $45.07 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, investors still need to weigh risks such as rising AI driven competition in engineering software and the possibility that higher R&D spending could compress Bentley Systems’ margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Bentley Systems narrative.

Another View: Bentley Systems Through The P/E Lens

The first take on Bentley Systems centers on a modeled fair value, yet the current P/E of about 36x tells a different story. It sits above the US Software industry at 28.5x and above an estimated fair ratio of 27.6x, which points to higher valuation risk if sentiment cools. So which signal should carry more weight for you right now?

To see how this valuation gap has been framed using earnings multiples, have a look at the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Given the mixed signals around Bentley Systems, this is a good time to act quickly, review the full data set, and decide where you stand using the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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