Backblaze, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLZE) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Backblaze, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLZE) shares plunged 44% in the week since its latest third-quarter results, closing yesterday at US$5.80. It looks like the results were pretty good overall. While revenues of US$37m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were much smaller than expected, with Backblaze losing US$0.07 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Backblaze after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Backblaze's nine analysts is for revenues of US$162.0m in 2026. This reflects a decent 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 41% to US$0.36. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$166.6m and US$0.35 per share in losses.

View our latest analysis for Backblaze

There was no real change to the average price target of US$11.30, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Backblaze's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Backblaze, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$15.90 and the most bearish at US$8.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Backblaze's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Backblaze's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.30, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Backblaze going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Backblaze that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.