Palantir has not stopped growing its earnings and revenue, making now an opportune time to initiate a position near its 52-week low. An effective strategy for a long-term position is to scale in across three buying increments.
Here is the structured breakdown of my investment and selling methodology:
1. Initiating a Long-Term Position
- Research & Setup: I begin by reviewing the company's fundamentals, then identify key support and resistance levels on the chart.
- First Buy (Smallest Position): My initial entry is my smallest, made with the expectation that the stock may drop another 7%.
- Second Buy (Larger Position): If it drops 7%, I buy my second position, which includes more shares than the first.
- Third Buy (Largest Position): My final, largest buy occurs at about 7% below my second purchase.
2. Patience and Flexibility
- Missing the Third Buy: Occasionally, the stock rallies right after my first buy. However, by being patient, I generally get the opportunity to buy a second position. Sometimes, I only get two positions before the stock goes up, and I never get to execute the third.
- Proven Track Record: This type of investing and selling has served me well for a number of years. It is designed for longer-term investors rather than those seeking quick profits.
3. Profit-Taking Strategy
- Initial Profit Target: My rule for selling is to take profits once the stock reaches 21% from my cost basis. Reaching this goal can take months, a year, or even longer.
- Scaling Out: After hitting a 21% profit, I continue selling at every additional 7% increase.
- House Money: I own a good number of stocks where I have recouped all my invested cash plus generated additional profits.
- Buying the Dip: If the stock continues to meet my criteria, I will occasionally buy some shares back when it drops 7% from my last sell.
Record Financial Performance & Expanding Margins Palantir has shattered enterprise software records. It posted an 85% year-over-year revenue increase in its latest quarter, alongside a Rule of 40 score of 145. Total contract values are surging as the company aggressively raises its full-year revenue guidance to roughly \(\$7.66\) billion. With net margins exceeding 40% and accelerating EPS, Palantir is translating massive AI demand into actual bottom-line growth.
Military Replenishment and Defense Modernization The U.S. military is in the midst of a massive "replenishment" and modernization cycle, directly benefiting Palantir's core platforms like Gotham, Foundry, and the Maven AI targeting system.
- The \(\$10\) Billion Army Deal: The U.S. Army consolidated 75 contracts into a 10-year enterprise agreement worth up to \(\$10\) billion, streamlining procurement for Palantir's AI and data integration services.
- Project Maven Adoption: The Pentagon's Project Maven—which uses Palantir’s AI for automated weapons targeting and intelligence—has been made an official program of record with contract ceilings raised to more than \(\$1.3\) billion.
- Navy Submarine Supply Chain: The Navy awarded a \(\$448\) million contract to Palantir to manage and accelerate nuclear submarine supply chains and maintenance, saving an estimated 20,000 man-hours.
Buying the Dip Palantir shares have experienced a sharp, ~35%+ pullback from their previous 52-week highs. This recent dip puts the stock near its 52-week low, trading around \(\$112-\$122\). The decline is largely attributed to broader market rotation away from AI momentum stocks and short-term tech-sector valuation pressures, providing a potentially attractive entry point for long-term investors
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Disclaimer
The user GaryB holds no position in NasdaqGS:PLTR. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.