Software U.S. Community
Our community narratives are driven by numbers and valuation.
Software U.S. Investing Ideas
Adobe: A Probabilistic Case for Undervaluation
As a self-described "Quantitative Fundamental Hobby Investor," my valuation philosophy is straightforward: I prioritize high-quality cash flow generation and the durability of a company’s economic moat. Adobe (ADBE) is currently at the center of a heated debate regarding AI disruption.Read more
A Wonderful Business at a Not-So-Wonderful Price
Intuit’s software is deeply woven into how small businesses run their money and taxes, and it’s trying to keep growing customers from leaving as they get bigger by offering a new mid-sized business suite. The catch is the stock price assumes a lot goes right at once, even as Mailchimp struggles, Credit Karma can swing with the credit cycle, and a government tax-filing alternative could come back.Read more
IREN's Trump Card: How Federal Policy Could Unlock Massive Value in AI Infrastructure
A new push from Washington to speed up approvals for big data-centre builds could land right in IREN’s lap, since it’s already lining up large sites in Texas powered by renewable energy. The big question is whether it can execute fast enough to justify today’s high expectations as it shifts from bitcoin mining toward selling computing power for AI.Read more
AXON's E-Commerce Expansion Will Unlock AppLovin's Next Growth Chapter
AppLovin’s AXON ad engine is moving beyond mobile gaming into online retail, a shift that could open a much bigger pool of customers if it works. The key moment is a new self-serve launch that could prove whether this expansion drives the next leg of growth—or exposes the company’s heavy debt and big price swings.Read more
Samsara’s 30% ARR Growth Could Drive 70%+ Upside
Samsara is a pioneering IoT platform company focused on connecting data from physical operations such as transportation, construction, and logistics. In fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2026), Samsara’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $1.89 billion, growing 30% year-over-year.Read more
Microsoft: Real‑Terms Economic Value Anchored in Durability, Not Growth Assumptions
Microsoft leans into huge spending on new AI data centers and its own chips to stay ahead, even if it squeezes profits in the near term. A key change in its OpenAI relationship also reshapes how it competes in cloud and AI, with big upside if its long-shot quantum bet works—and real damage if it misreads the next platform shift.Read more
Microsoft will achieve a future PE ratio of 24.626979x by leveraging strong growth
Valuation In 3–5 years, I think Microsoft becomes even more dominant in enterprise AI, cloud infrastructure, and productivity software. Azure and Copilot are probably the biggest growth drivers, while Windows, Office, LinkedIn, GitHub, and gaming remain huge cash generators.Read more
PGY may go up in next 6-12 months.
Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) — Investment Thesis Pagaya Technologies is not a software company. This distinction is the foundation of the entire investment case and is widely misunderstood by the market.Read more
Good Value for a Creative Monopoly
Adobe’s strategic positioning ensures it remains the creative industry’s "operating system," regardless of whether AI succeeds or fails. By building Firefly exclusively on licensed Adobe Stock and public domain content, Adobe has created a unique "legal moat" that offers enterprise customers commercial safety and IP indemnity that competitors cannot match.Read more
