Software U.S. Community
Our community narratives are driven by numbers and valuation.
Software U.S. Investing Ideas
Samsara’s 30% ARR Growth Could Drive 70%+ Upside
Samsara is a pioneering IoT platform company focused on connecting data from physical operations such as transportation, construction, and logistics. In fiscal year 2026 (ending January 2026), Samsara’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $1.89 billion, growing 30% year-over-year.Read more
Microsoft: Real‑Terms Economic Value Anchored in Durability, Not Growth Assumptions
Microsoft’s long‑term economic value remains grounded in the same core reality: the company’s enterprise cash‑flow durability continues to be unmatched. High‑retention subscription economics, entrenched operating‑system and productivity moats, and the scale advantages of Azure still anchor Microsoft’s intrinsic worth far more than any short‑term growth narrative.Read more
Microsoft will achieve a future PE ratio of 24.626979x by leveraging strong growth
Valuation In 3–5 years, I think Microsoft becomes even more dominant in enterprise AI, cloud infrastructure, and productivity software. Azure and Copilot are probably the biggest growth drivers, while Windows, Office, LinkedIn, GitHub, and gaming remain huge cash generators.Read more
PGY may go up in next 6-12 months.
Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY) — Investment Thesis Pagaya Technologies is not a software company. This distinction is the foundation of the entire investment case and is widely misunderstood by the market.Read more
Good Value for a Creative Monopoly
Adobe’s strategic positioning ensures it remains the creative industry’s "operating system," regardless of whether AI succeeds or fails. By building Firefly exclusively on licensed Adobe Stock and public domain content, Adobe has created a unique "legal moat" that offers enterprise customers commercial safety and IP indemnity that competitors cannot match.Read more
Classic Value Trap
Adobe was an amazing company. I'm an end user since 1991.Read more
Everyone's Terrified Microsoft Will Keep Spending. I'm Terrified They'll Stop.
Microsoft just burned $37.5 billion in 90 days. The stock has lost a third of its value.Read more
Deep Dive: Assessing the Sustainability of CRWV’s Compute-as-a-Service Model
Deep Dive: Assessing the Sustainability of CRWV’s Compute-as-a-Service Model I’ve been looking into the business model of CRWV and its reliance on high-leverage hardware acquisition. Here’s a breakdown of why the current trajectory might face significant structural headwinds compared to established players.Read more
IREN Thesis: From Miner to AI Infrastructure Leader
IREN is undergoing a fundamental re-rating, evolving from a Bitcoin miner into a premier AI Cloud Service Provider. The thesis is anchored by the scarcity of three critical assets: Gigawatt-scale power , specialized data centers , and NVIDIA Blackwell compute.Read more
