In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Aware, Inc. (NASDAQ:AWRE), since the last five years saw the share price fall 44%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 25% over the last twelve months. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 23% in the last three months. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 16% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
With the stock having lost 11% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Given that Aware didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
Over half a decade Aware reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 4.3% for each year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. The share price decline at a rate of 8% per year is disappointing. But it doesn't surprise given the falling revenue. It might be worth watching for signs of a turnaround - buyers are probably expecting one.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Aware in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Aware shareholders are down 25% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 9.4%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Aware you should be aware of.
Aware is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Aware, Inc., a authentication company, provides biometrics software products and solutions for government agencies and commercial entities in the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and overvalued.