What Autodesk (ADSK)'s Upgraded 2025 Guidance Means For Shareholders

• Earlier this month, Autodesk reported strong fiscal Q3 2025 results and raised its full-year revenue and GAAP operating margin guidance, following better-than-expected performance across its design and engineering software portfolio.
• This upgraded outlook, underpinned by outperformance in Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operations (AECO) and a healthier billings pipeline into early 2027, supports confidence in Autodesk’s role in digital transformation and sustainability-focused design.
• Now, we’ll explore how Autodesk’s upgraded full-year guidance could influence the existing investment narrative built around cloud, AI, and margin expansion.

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Autodesk Investment Narrative Recap

To own Autodesk, you generally need to believe in long term demand for its design and engineering software as customers shift deeper into cloud, AI and data rich workflows. The upgraded full year revenue and GAAP margin guidance strengthens the near term catalyst around margin expansion and cloud adoption, while the biggest near term risk remains pricing pressure and customer friction as alternatives and new models compete for budget. Overall, this quarter’s news supports, rather than changes, that story.

Recent updates on Autodesk’s share repurchase activity, with roughly US$2,185.2 million spent to retire about 8.0 million shares since 2022, sit alongside the raised guidance and highlight how management is pairing investment in cloud and AI offerings with ongoing capital returns. For investors focused on catalysts, the combination of AECO strength, a healthier billings outlook into early 2027, and continued buybacks may reinforce the existing thesis around earnings quality and margin resilience.

But against this improving outlook, rising competition from lower cost and open source tools is a risk investors should be aware of...

Read the full narrative on Autodesk (it's free!)

Autodesk's narrative projects $9.3 billion revenue and $2.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 12.0% yearly revenue growth and a $1.0 billion earnings increase from $1.0 billion today.

Uncover how Autodesk's forecasts yield a $365.14 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$284 to US$365 per share, showing how differently individual investors assess Autodesk’s potential. Set against raised revenue and margin guidance, this spread of views invites you to weigh enthusiasm for cloud and AI driven growth against the real risk of mounting competitive and pricing pressure.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Autodesk - why the stock might be worth 5% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Autodesk Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Autodesk research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Autodesk research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Autodesk's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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