A Fresh Look at Autodesk (ADSK) Valuation After Recent Share Price Pullback

Autodesk (ADSK) shares have pulled back about 8% over the past month, prompting some investors to take a closer look at recent performance. The company’s year-to-date return remains positive, and annual revenue and net income have both grown.

See our latest analysis for Autodesk.

Autodesk’s momentum has faded a bit after its recent pullback, but when you zoom out, the picture is still reasonably solid. The 1-year total shareholder return sits at 2.86%, while the three-year total return of 49% shows that long-term holders have been rewarded. Despite some short-term volatility, the company continues to post healthy growth, and the current price may reflect some shifting sentiment or caution about the pace of future gains.

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But does this recent dip signal a chance to pick up Autodesk at a relative bargain, or is the current stock price already accounting for the company’s future growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.3% Undervalued

Comparing the narrative fair value of $363.71 with the last closing price of $297.08, analysts see significant upside if their projections hold. The narrative combines recent financial momentum with ambitious forecasts for earnings and margin expansion, highlighting factors they believe the market may be underestimating.

Continued innovation and integration of AI-driven tools (e.g., generative design, AutoConstrain) and industry-specific foundation models are boosting customer productivity and differentiating Autodesk's offerings, supporting premium pricing and driving margin expansion and long-term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the real engine behind this high valuation? The narrative is built on bold profit growth, climbing margins, and a future multiple that often signals tech outperformance. Which assumptions are shaping this eye-catching target? Click through to uncover the critical numbers that could change how you view Autodesk.

Result: Fair Value of $363.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising competition from open-source platforms and slower customer adoption of new models could challenge Autodesk's growth narrative in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this Autodesk narrative.

Another View: Multiples Point to a Different Story

While analysts see Autodesk as undervalued based on future earnings projections, looking at the price-to-earnings ratio tells a contrasting tale. Autodesk is currently trading at 60.6 times earnings, which is much higher than both the US Software industry average of 34.8x and the fair ratio of 42.6x. This suggests that, at today's prices, investors are paying a sizable premium compared to both its peers and what the market might eventually settle on. Could this premium be justified by future outperformance, or is there valuation risk ahead?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Autodesk Narrative

If you’re the kind of investor who likes to dig into the details and trust your own judgment, it’s easy to craft a narrative tailored to your outlook. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Autodesk research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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