Why Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) Could Be Worth Watching

Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Semtech’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

View our latest analysis for Semtech

Is Semtech Still Cheap?

According to my valuation model, Semtech seems to be fairly priced at around 13% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Semtech today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is $36.48, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Semtech’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of Semtech look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Semtech, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? SMTC seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on SMTC for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on SMTC should the price fluctuate below its true value.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Semtech you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Semtech, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.