Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

It's been a pretty great week for Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$17.94 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$5.1m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.16 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Rigetti Computing's 13 analysts is for revenues of US$23.3m in 2026. This would reflect a substantial 74% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 67% to US$0.24. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$23.6m and losses of US$0.15 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a massive increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

Check out our latest analysis for Rigetti Computing

The consensus price target held steady at US$28.81, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Rigetti Computing analyst has a price target of US$40.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rigetti Computing's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Rigetti Computing's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 203% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 25% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Rigetti Computing is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Rigetti Computing. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Rigetti Computing going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Rigetti Computing is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.