Stock Analysis

QUALCOMM (NASDAQ:QCOM) jumps 6.0% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind five-year shareholder returns

NasdaqGS:QCOM
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If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) share price is up 80% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. However, if you include the dividends then the return is market beating. Over the last twelve months the stock price has risen a very respectable 9.3%.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for QUALCOMM investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for QUALCOMM

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, QUALCOMM managed to grow its earnings per share at 20% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 12% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:QCOM Earnings Per Share Growth December 26th 2024

We know that QUALCOMM has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, QUALCOMM's TSR for the last 5 years was 101%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

QUALCOMM shareholders are up 11% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 15% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. If you would like to research QUALCOMM in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

We will like QUALCOMM better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if QUALCOMM might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.