What Nova Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:NVMI) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Despite an already strong run, Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ:NVMI) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 99% in the last year.

After such a large jump in price, Nova's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 39.1x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Nova's negative earnings growth of late has neither been better nor worse than most other companies. It might be that many expect the company's earnings to strengthen positively despite the tough market conditions, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Nova

Keen to find out how analysts think Nova's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Nova would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 3.2%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 175% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 1.6% over the next year. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 12%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Nova's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Nova's P/E

Shares in Nova have built up some good momentum lately, which has really inflated its P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Nova currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Nova with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If you're unsure about the strength of Nova's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.