Is ASML (NasdaqGS:ASML) Still Fairly Valued After Its Strong 3-Month Share Price Rally?

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) has quietly kept rewarding patient investors, with the stock up around 32% over the past 3 months and more than 50% over the past year despite recent pullbacks.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

That mix of a strong 90 day share price return of 32.8% and a 1 year total shareholder return above 50% suggests momentum is very much still building as investors reassess ASML Holding's growth runway and risk profile.

If ASML Holding has you thinking about the broader chip boom, it might be worth exploring other high growth tech names via high growth tech and AI stocks to see what else fits your strategy.

With shares near 1,080 dollars, just shy of analyst targets and trading at a steep premium to typical chipmakers, the key question now is whether ASML is still undervalued or if markets already price in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 7.8% Overvalued

With ASML Holding last closing at 1,080.85 dollars versus a narrative fair value near 1,002 dollars, the stage is set for a nuanced long term debate.

ASML’s Q2 results were objectively strong, but a cautious tone on the near-term outlook spooked investors. However, this creates an opportunity for long-term investors.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how strong margins, steady revenue expansion, and a confident future profit multiple can still point to downside from here? The narrative’s math might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $1002.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing export controls and a potential 2026 demand plateau could squeeze orders, challenge lofty growth assumptions, and trigger a reassessment of ASML’s premium valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

On earnings, ASML trades at 37.9 times profits, richer than its fair ratio of 31.1 times and slightly above the US semiconductor average of 37 times. This implies investors are paying up for quality and growth, but also leaving less room for disappointment if the cycle softens.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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