Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Valvoline Inc. (NYSE:VVV)

With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Valvoline Inc.'s (NYSE:VVV) P/E ratio of 15.6x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Our free stock report includes 4 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Valvoline. Read for free now.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Valvoline has been doing relatively well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Valvoline

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Valvoline.

Is There Some Growth For Valvoline?

Valvoline's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 35% gain to the company's bottom line. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 274% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 11% as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 14%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Valvoline's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Valvoline's P/E

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Valvoline currently trades on a higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Having said that, be aware Valvoline is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are potentially serious.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.