MINISO Group Holding Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for MINISO Group Holding Limited (NYSE:MNSO) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 12% to US$18.29. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at CN¥1.36, some 31% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at CN¥4.4b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the 22 analysts covering MINISO Group Holding are now predicting revenues of CN¥20.8b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.5% to CN¥8.28. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥21.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥9.73 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for MINISO Group Holding

The consensus price target held steady at US$23.47, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic MINISO Group Holding analyst has a price target of US$30.94 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.49. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that MINISO Group Holding's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 24% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 16% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MINISO Group Holding to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MINISO Group Holding. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MINISO Group Holding going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - MINISO Group Holding has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.