Why We're Not Concerned About CarMax, Inc.'s (NYSE:KMX) Share Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.8x CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Recent times have been more advantageous for CarMax as its earnings haven't fallen as much as the rest of the market. The P/E is probably high because investors think this comparatively better earnings performance will continue. While you'd prefer that its earnings trajectory turned around, you'd at least be hoping it remains less negative than other companies, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

CarMax's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. The lack of growth did nothing to help the company's aggregate three-year performance, which is an unsavory 33% drop in EPS. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 13% each year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. With the market only predicted to deliver 11% per annum, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.

With this information, we can see why CarMax is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. Apparently shareholders aren't keen to offload something that is potentially eyeing a more prosperous future.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of CarMax's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for CarMax that you need to take into consideration.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than CarMax. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.