MarineMax, Inc. Just Beat Revenue By 5.2%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$758m arriving 5.2% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$1.37, 2.8% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for MarineMax

Following the latest results, MarineMax's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.56b in 2025. This would be a satisfactory 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 46% to US$3.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.09 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on MarineMax's earnings potential following these results.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 29% to US$42.50. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MarineMax analyst has a price target of US$49.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$40.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that MarineMax is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MarineMax's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MarineMax is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards MarineMax following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MarineMax. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MarineMax going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that MarineMax is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com