Dillard's, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 3.4% to US$436. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$6.9b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Dillard's surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$44.73 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Dillard's

After the latest results, the consensus from Dillard's' three analysts is for revenues of US$6.43b in 2025, which would reflect a small 6.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 32% to US$30.92 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$6.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$28.19 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

The average price target rose 24% to US$311, with the analysts signalling that the improved earnings outlook is the key driver of value for shareholders - enough to offset the reduction in revenue estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Dillard's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$450 and the most bearish at US$190 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 3.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% per year. It's pretty clear that Dillard's' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Dillard's' earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dillard's going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Dillard's that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.