Dillard's (NYSE:DDS) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of DDS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

DDS ($259.85) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($311.41)

DDS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	6/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

DDS Stock Overview

Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 16.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 289.8% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 45.1% per year for the next 3 years

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Dillard's Competitors

Kohl's

NYSE:KSS

US$5.0b

Nordstrom

NYSE:JWN

US$3.9b

Macy's

NYSE:M

US$5.7b

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings

NasdaqGM:OLLI

US$4.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Dillard's
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$259.85
52 Week High	US$416.71
52 Week Low	US$160.51
Beta	0.76
1 Month Change	-14.06%
3 Month Change	-6.42%
1 Year Change	41.69%
3 Year Change	317.23%
5 Year Change	350.43%
Change since IPO	942.88%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 27

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Dillard's, Inc. (NYSE:DDS)

How far off is Dillard's, Inc. ( NYSE:DDS ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take...

Jun 17

Pair Trade: Buy Macy's, Sell Dillard's

Up until 2020, Macy's consistently reported higher margins than Dillard's. Both department store chains' margins have soared relative to 2019, but Dillard's has dramatically leapfrogged Macy's in terms of profitability. Dillard's stock now trades at a significant premium to Macy's shares, indicating that investors expect Dillard's to maintain a massive margin advantage going forward. If anything, Macy's is better positioned to weather a volatile economic climate than Dillard's. Dillard's high short interest represents the main risk to a long Macy's/short Dillard's pair trade.

Shareholder Returns

	DDS	US Multiline Retail	US Market
7D	-4.9%	6.4%	6.6%
1Y	41.7%	-13.6%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: DDS exceeded the US Multiline Retail industry which returned -13.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: DDS exceeded the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is DDS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
DDS volatility
DDS Average Weekly Movement	11.4%
Multiline Retail Industry Average Movement	9.9%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: DDS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.

Volatility Over Time: DDS's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1938	n/a	William Dillard	https://www.dillards.com

Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. Its stores offer merchandise, including fashion apparel for women, men, and children; and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated 280 Dillard’s stores, including 30 clearance centers, and an Internet store at dillards.com.

Dillard's Fundamentals Summary

How do Dillard's's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
DDS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$4.55b
Earnings (TTM)	US$955.32m
Revenue (TTM)	US$6.91b

4.8x

P/E Ratio

0.7x

P/S Ratio

Is DDS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
DDS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$6.91b
Cost of Revenue	US$3.84b
Gross Profit	US$3.07b
Other Expenses	US$2.12b
Earnings	US$955.32m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	54.52
Gross Margin	44.50%
Net Profit Margin	13.83%
Debt/Equity Ratio	37.4%

How did DDS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.3%

Current Dividend Yield

2%

Payout Ratio

Does DDS pay a reliable dividends?

See DDS dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy DDS by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Dillard's dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jun 29 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Aug 01 2022
Days until Ex dividend	1 day
Days until Dividend pay date	34 days

Does DDS pay a reliable dividends?

See DDS dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is DDS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DDS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for DDS. This is calculated by dividing DDS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is DDS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$4.55b

DDS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3x
PEG Ratio	-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DDS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

DDS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for DDS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.5x
KSS Kohl's	5.4x	-0.8%	US$5.0b
JWN Nordstrom	10.7x	7.3%	US$3.9b
M Macy's	3.5x	-7.4%	US$5.7b
OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings	34.5x	27.7%	US$4.0b
DDS Dillard's	4.8x	-45.1%	US$4.6b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DDS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.8x) compared to the peer average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DDS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DDS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.8x) compared to the US Multiline Retail industry average (10.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DDS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DDS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.8x
Fair PE Ratio	5.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DDS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DDS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DDS ($259.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($311.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DDS is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: DDS's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Dillard's forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-45.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: DDS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-45.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: DDS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-45.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: DDS's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: DDS's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-5.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: DDS's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-5.5% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: DDS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.4%).

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Past Performance

How has Dillard's performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

31.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: DDS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: DDS's current net profit margins (13.8%) are higher than last year (4.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: DDS's earnings have grown significantly by 31.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: DDS's earnings growth over the past year (289.8%) exceeds its 5-year average (31.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: DDS earnings growth over the past year (289.8%) exceeded the Multiline Retail industry -4.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: DDS's Return on Equity (63.2%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Dillard's's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: DDS's short term assets ($2.4B) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: DDS's short term assets ($2.4B) exceed its long term liabilities ($827.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: DDS has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: DDS's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 48.2% to 37.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: DDS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (237.2%).

Interest Coverage: DDS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (31.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Dillard's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.31%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: DDS's dividend (0.31%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: DDS's dividend (0.31%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: DDS is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: DDS is not paying a notable dividend for the US market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: DDS is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: DDS is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

William Dillard (76 yo)

24.08yrs

Tenure

US$12,655,214

Compensation

Mr. William T. Dillard, II has been the Chairman at Dillard's Inc. since May 2002 and has been Chief Executive Officer since May 1998. Mr. Dillard served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Dillard...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: William's total compensation ($USD12.66M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.88M).

Compensation vs Earnings: William's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: DDS's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: DDS's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 24.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: DDS insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/30
Annual Earnings	2022/01/29