Coupang (NYSE:CPNG): Evaluating Valuation After Record Data Breach and Regulatory Scrutiny

Coupang (NYSE:CPNG) shares pulled back after the company revealed a major data breach affecting nearly 34 million users. This is the largest such incident in South Korea in more than a decade. The breach has drawn immediate regulatory scrutiny and class action threats.

See our latest analysis for Coupang.

The news of this historic data leak sent Coupang’s share price tumbling, with a 1-day drop of 5.36% and a 16.64% slide over the past month. Even so, the stock’s year-to-date share price return is still a healthy 19.56%, and its three-year total shareholder return remains impressive at nearly 49%. This suggests that despite this setback, long-term holders have been well rewarded. The recent slump highlights how quickly market momentum can shift in response to new risks, but also how robust Coupang’s performance has been over the longer run.

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With Coupang’s valuation now showing a notable discount to analyst price targets and its fundamentals still solid, the key question is whether this sharp selloff presents a true buying opportunity or if the market is correctly pricing in future risks and growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 25.9% Undervalued

Coupang’s most widely tracked narrative points to a fair value nearly $10 above the last close, highlighting expectations for robust long-term growth and margin gains despite recent volatility. As Coupang’s discount rate drifts slightly lower, excitement continues to build over its regional expansion and operational leverage.

Ongoing investments in automation, AI, and logistics technology are already driving major improvements in operational efficiency and gross margins. Management sees significant further upside as these technologies are scaled. Over time, this is likely to result in continued margin expansion and growth in earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know why this story stands out among retail giants? A bold assumption about future operating leverage lies at the heart of this valuation. There is more beneath Coupang’s growth engine that could shift perceptions of its entire business model. Are you ready for the full set of numbers that make up this calculation?

Result: Fair Value of $35.99 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain if scaling inefficiencies persist in Taiwan or if higher operating costs reduce Coupang’s growing margins and delay profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this Coupang narrative.

Another View: Market Multiples Give a Different Signal

Looking at Coupang through the lens of price-to-earnings, its valuation looks lofty. The current ratio of 124.8x stands far above both the global retail industry average of 20.2x and the peer group average of 33.4x. Even compared to the fair ratio of 43.7x, Coupang appears expensive. This sizable gap suggests heightened risk if the market adjusts its expectations. Could future growth justify such a premium, or is caution warranted?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Coupang Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own, why not craft a personal take in just a few minutes? Do it your way

A great starting point for your Coupang research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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