Disclaimer: this narrative attempts mainly to put together themes, not justify the fair value estimation provided.
On the DEMAND side, there are multiple drivers supporting the thesis of a multi-year silver bull market: 1. demographics (growing world population, urbanisation, growing middle-class - with its consumption patterns etc.); 2. electrification (transportation, grids, heating, energy storage); 3. digitalisation & AI, driving higher energy consumption and need for investments in infrastructure; 4. renewables (particularly solar PV, for which new models use plenty more silver than previous generations); 5. defence spending (the world is rearming); 6. monetary aspects: hedge against inflation and store of value (vs. increasing fiscal deficits, expansive monetary policies - in particular when it comes to the dollar). On the SUPPLY side, consider: 1. 2025 will be the 5th year of supply deficit, and it takes several years (7 to 15?) to bring new mines online. 2. Main actors have generally healthier balance sheets than in the past - without going into specific cases, the industry is in a position of strength. Also, new leverage would act as a multiplier. Other factors to consider: gold/silver ratio at its extremes, Distortions of the derivative market (Comex) and recent short-squeezes.
"Narratives swing to extremes, supply signals get ignored, and capital flows chase what has already happened rather than what is coming next" (Gorozen, 2025).
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user Abc has a position in DB:SLVR. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.