The Cato Corporation's (NYSE:CATO) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

It's not a stretch to say that The Cato Corporation's (NYSE:CATO) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

See our latest analysis for Cato

What Does Cato's Recent Performance Look Like?

For instance, Cato's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Cato's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Cato's Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Cato would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 7.0%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 6.6% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 3.7% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Cato is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that Cato currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Cato you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.