Stock Analysis

Even after rising 13% this past week, Cato (NYSE:CATO) shareholders are still down 75% over the past three years

NYSE:CATO
Source: Shutterstock

The Cato Corporation (NYSE:CATO) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 13% in the last week. But that is meagre solace in the face of the shocking decline over three years. To wit, the share price sky-dived 80% in that time. So it sure is nice to see a bit of an improvement. Only time will tell if the company can sustain the turnaround. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

While the stock has risen 13% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

See our latest analysis for Cato

Because Cato made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

Over the last three years, Cato's revenue dropped 4.4% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. Having said that the 22% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. This business clearly needs to grow revenues if it is to perform as investors hope. Don't let a share price decline ruin your calm. You make better decisions when you're calm.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:CATO Earnings and Revenue Growth March 17th 2025

Take a more thorough look at Cato's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Cato's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Cato's TSR of was a loss of 75% for the 3 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Cato had a tough year, with a total loss of 47%, against a market gain of about 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Cato (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.