Burlington Stores, Inc.

NYSE:BURL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$18.0b

Burlington Stores Valuation

Is BURL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BURL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BURL ($286.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($321.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BURL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BURL?

Key metric: As BURL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BURL. This is calculated by dividing BURL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BURL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio42.1x
EarningsUS$428.28m
Market CapUS$18.02b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BURL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BURL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.3x
GAP Gap
11.4x3.4%US$9.4b
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch
15.5x2.7%US$7.8b
ROST Ross Stores
22.9x7.6%US$48.5b
BOOT Boot Barn Holdings
27.3x16.8%US$4.2b
BURL Burlington Stores
42.1x17.8%US$18.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BURL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.1x) compared to the peer average (19.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BURL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
1.9xn/aUS$14.10m
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$144.03k
FTCH.Q Farfetch
n/an/aUS$395.00
EXPR.Q Express
0.000002xn/aUS$374.00
BURL 42.1xIndustry Avg. 17.2xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BURL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.1x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (17.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BURL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BURL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.1x
Fair PE Ratio20.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BURL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BURL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$286.17
US$312.34
+9.1%
6.4%US$358.00US$278.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$242.70
US$312.39
+28.7%
6.3%US$354.00US$270.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$259.61
US$312.11
+20.2%
6.5%US$354.00US$270.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$268.24
US$308.22
+14.9%
9.3%US$354.00US$238.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$255.24
US$269.06
+5.4%
6.4%US$300.00US$230.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$233.02
US$267.44
+14.8%
5.7%US$285.00US$230.00n/a18
Jun ’25US$240.05
US$266.00
+10.8%
7.1%US$285.00US$212.00n/a18
May ’25US$178.02
US$243.82
+37.0%
12.9%US$285.00US$126.00n/a19
Apr ’25US$228.73
US$243.82
+6.6%
12.9%US$285.00US$126.00n/a19
Mar ’25US$205.76
US$211.55
+2.8%
15.5%US$250.00US$126.00n/a20
Feb ’25US$197.32
US$200.25
+1.5%
17.2%US$245.00US$126.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$194.48
US$188.95
-2.8%
15.2%US$245.00US$126.00n/a20
Dec ’24US$174.06
US$189.85
+9.1%
15.3%US$245.00US$126.00n/a20
Nov ’24US$118.58
US$195.89
+65.2%
15.2%US$250.00US$120.00US$242.7019
Oct ’24US$135.30
US$201.68
+49.1%
15.3%US$250.00US$120.00US$259.6119
Sep ’24US$162.48
US$202.14
+24.4%
15.3%US$250.00US$120.00US$268.2419
Aug ’24US$174.09
US$205.40
+18.0%
16.0%US$250.00US$120.00US$255.2419
Jul ’24US$157.39
US$205.40
+30.5%
16.0%US$250.00US$120.00US$233.0219
Jun ’24US$144.30
US$212.29
+47.1%
13.5%US$250.00US$120.00US$240.0519
May ’24US$186.61
US$240.64
+29.0%
9.1%US$281.00US$203.00US$178.0218
Apr ’24US$202.10
US$241.86
+19.7%
8.4%US$281.00US$204.00US$228.7318
Mar ’24US$217.11
US$235.74
+8.6%
10.7%US$281.00US$195.00US$205.7619
Feb ’24US$234.15
US$221.84
-5.3%
10.4%US$281.00US$177.00US$197.3219
Jan ’24US$202.76
US$207.74
+2.5%
13.9%US$240.00US$105.00US$194.4819
Dec ’23US$194.61
US$206.42
+6.1%
13.8%US$240.00US$105.00US$174.0619
Nov ’23US$140.11
US$173.28
+23.7%
14.2%US$200.00US$100.00US$118.5818

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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