Optimistic Investors Push Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BOOT) Shares Up 26% But Growth Is Lacking

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BOOT) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 50% in the last year.

Since its price has surged higher, Boot Barn Holdings may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.8x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Boot Barn Holdings' negative earnings growth of late has neither been better nor worse than most other companies. It might be that many expect the company's earnings to strengthen positively despite the tough market conditions, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Boot Barn Holdings

Keen to find out how analysts think Boot Barn Holdings' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Boot Barn Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.9% decrease to the company's bottom line. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 285% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 6.6% over the next year. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 12%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Boot Barn Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Boot Barn Holdings' P/E?

Boot Barn Holdings shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Boot Barn Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Boot Barn Holdings that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.