Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BOOT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.3% to US$171 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues were US$504m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$1.74 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 13%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Boot Barn Holdings from 14 analysts is for revenues of US$2.17b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 9.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.3% to US$6.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.22 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Boot Barn Holdings

The consensus price target rose 19% to US$219, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Boot Barn Holdings analyst has a price target of US$254 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$180. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Boot Barn Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Boot Barn Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Boot Barn Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Boot Barn Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Boot Barn Holdings that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.