Ulta Beauty, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ULTA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$19.3b

Ulta Beauty Valuation

Is ULTA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ULTA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ULTA ($425.52) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($472.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ULTA is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ULTA?

Key metric: As ULTA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ULTA. This is calculated by dividing ULTA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ULTA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.4x
EarningsUS$1.20b
Market CapUS$19.32b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ULTA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ULTA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.7x
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods
15.3x3.7%US$17.5b
CHWY Chewy
33x-0.5%US$13.0b
TSCO Tractor Supply
25.4x6.9%US$28.3b
BBWI Bath & Body Works
9x0.2%US$8.3b
ULTA Ulta Beauty
16.4x-0.7%US$19.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ULTA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ULTA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
1.9xn/aUS$14.65m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$168.03k
CONN.Q Conn's
n/an/aUS$2.49k
ULTA 16.4xIndustry Avg. 16.3xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ULTA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ULTA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ULTA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.4x
Fair PE Ratio15.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ULTA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ULTA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$425.52
US$438.31
+3.0%
12.3%US$510.00US$330.00n/a26
Dec ’25US$386.64
US$398.74
+3.1%
11.9%US$472.00US$300.00n/a26
Nov ’25US$377.65
US$396.24
+4.9%
12.3%US$472.00US$300.00n/a26
Oct ’25US$379.13
US$400.54
+5.6%
12.1%US$505.00US$300.00n/a26
Sep ’25US$352.84
US$406.96
+15.3%
11.0%US$505.00US$300.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$349.95
US$469.15
+34.1%
12.9%US$552.00US$325.00n/a25
Jul ’25US$384.41
US$481.94
+25.4%
12.8%US$608.58US$350.00n/a25
Jun ’25US$395.09
US$487.70
+23.4%
12.0%US$608.58US$350.00n/a25
May ’25US$402.11
US$550.33
+36.9%
13.7%US$690.00US$350.00n/a26
Apr ’25US$529.01
US$582.87
+10.2%
10.8%US$690.00US$410.00n/a26
Mar ’25US$549.98
US$547.41
-0.5%
12.6%US$635.00US$378.00n/a25
Feb ’25US$503.52
US$536.01
+6.5%
12.1%US$635.00US$378.00n/a25
Jan ’25US$489.99
US$529.81
+8.1%
11.3%US$620.00US$378.00n/a25
Dec ’24US$472.03
US$522.75
+10.7%
11.6%US$620.00US$378.00US$386.6425
Nov ’24US$375.46
US$513.49
+36.8%
12.0%US$606.00US$375.00US$377.6524
Oct ’24US$399.45
US$523.45
+31.0%
12.1%US$640.00US$375.00US$379.1324
Sep ’24US$416.01
US$522.50
+25.6%
12.1%US$640.00US$375.00US$352.8424
Aug ’24US$442.25
US$529.67
+19.8%
13.0%US$640.00US$350.00US$349.9524
Jul ’24US$470.60
US$529.67
+12.6%
13.0%US$640.00US$350.00US$384.4124
Jun ’24US$403.83
US$526.33
+30.3%
13.5%US$640.00US$350.00US$395.0924
May ’24US$532.88
US$555.33
+4.2%
12.7%US$640.00US$364.00US$402.1124
Apr ’24US$545.67
US$551.29
+1.0%
12.7%US$636.00US$352.00US$529.0124
Mar ’24US$516.02
US$526.24
+2.0%
13.0%US$607.00US$352.00US$549.9825
Feb ’24US$523.59
US$514.96
-1.6%
12.1%US$607.00US$352.00US$503.5225
Jan ’24US$469.07
US$514.36
+9.7%
11.8%US$607.00US$352.00US$489.9925
Dec ’23US$472.53
US$481.88
+2.0%
11.5%US$600.00US$339.00US$472.0326

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 22:42
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/11/02
Annual Earnings2024/02/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ulta Beauty, Inc. is covered by 49 analysts. 29 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Deborah CiervoArgus Research Company
Mark AltschwagerBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research