Ulta Beauty Valuation

Is ULTA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ULTA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ULTA ($390.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($594.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ULTA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ULTA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ULTA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.7x
PEG Ratio3.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ULTA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ULTA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average46.3x
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods
17x4.6%US$17.6b
TSCO Tractor Supply
25.8x6.1%US$29.1b
CHWY Chewy
133x28.7%US$11.3b
BBWI Bath & Body Works
9.5x2.7%US$8.6b
ULTA Ulta Beauty
14.8x4.4%US$18.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ULTA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the peer average (46.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ULTA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ULTA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ULTA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ULTA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.8x
Fair PE Ratio16.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ULTA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ULTA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$390.92
US$473.75
+21.2%
12.0%US$552.00US$350.00n/a25
Jul ’25US$384.41
US$481.94
+25.4%
12.8%US$608.58US$350.00n/a25
Jun ’25US$395.09
US$487.70
+23.4%
12.0%US$608.58US$350.00n/a25
May ’25US$402.11
US$550.33
+36.9%
13.7%US$690.00US$350.00n/a26
Apr ’25US$529.01
US$582.87
+10.2%
10.8%US$690.00US$410.00n/a26
Mar ’25US$549.98
US$547.41
-0.5%
12.6%US$635.00US$378.00n/a25
Feb ’25US$503.52
US$536.01
+6.5%
12.1%US$635.00US$378.00n/a25
Jan ’25US$489.99
US$529.81
+8.1%
11.3%US$620.00US$378.00n/a25
Dec ’24US$472.03
US$522.75
+10.7%
11.6%US$620.00US$378.00n/a25
Nov ’24US$375.46
US$513.49
+36.8%
12.0%US$606.00US$375.00n/a24
Oct ’24US$399.45
US$523.45
+31.0%
12.1%US$640.00US$375.00n/a24
Sep ’24US$416.01
US$522.50
+25.6%
12.1%US$640.00US$375.00n/a24
Aug ’24US$442.25
US$529.67
+19.8%
13.0%US$640.00US$350.00n/a24
Jul ’24US$470.60
US$529.67
+12.6%
13.0%US$640.00US$350.00US$384.4124
Jun ’24US$403.83
US$526.33
+30.3%
13.5%US$640.00US$350.00US$395.0924
May ’24US$532.88
US$555.33
+4.2%
12.7%US$640.00US$364.00US$402.1124
Apr ’24US$545.67
US$551.29
+1.0%
12.7%US$636.00US$352.00US$529.0124
Mar ’24US$516.02
US$526.24
+2.0%
13.0%US$607.00US$352.00US$549.9825
Feb ’24US$523.59
US$514.96
-1.6%
12.1%US$607.00US$352.00US$503.5225
Jan ’24US$469.07
US$514.36
+9.7%
11.8%US$607.00US$352.00US$489.9925
Dec ’23US$472.53
US$481.88
+2.0%
11.5%US$600.00US$339.00US$472.0326
Nov ’23US$422.00
US$479.00
+13.5%
11.3%US$600.00US$339.00US$375.4626
Oct ’23US$401.19
US$479.00
+19.4%
11.3%US$600.00US$339.00US$399.4526
Sep ’23US$424.25
US$478.34
+12.8%
11.4%US$600.00US$339.00US$416.0126
Aug ’23US$394.28
US$453.38
+15.0%
10.3%US$548.00US$323.00US$442.2526
Jul ’23US$382.85
US$453.38
+18.4%
10.3%US$548.00US$323.00US$470.6026

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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