Tractor Supply Company

NasdaqGS:TSCO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$29.2b

Tractor Supply Valuation

Is TSCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TSCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TSCO ($270) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($260.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TSCO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TSCO?

Key metric: As TSCO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TSCO. This is calculated by dividing TSCO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TSCO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.9x
EarningsUS$1.11b
Market CapUS$29.15b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TSCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TSCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.6x
ULTA Ulta Beauty
13.4x-0.8%US$16.1b
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods
13.9x3.8%US$16.2b
CHWY Chewy
39.9x-0.3%US$13.8b
BBWI Bath & Body Works
7.1x-0.5%US$6.7b
TSCO Tractor Supply
25.9x7.2%US$29.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TSCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TSCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$14.40m
SSOK Sunstock
2.3xn/aUS$771.79k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$192.03k
CONN.Q Conn's
n/an/aUS$2.49k
TSCO 25.9xIndustry Avg. 16.7xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TSCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TSCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TSCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.9x
Fair PE Ratio17.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TSCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TSCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$270.00
US$289.83
+7.3%
10.5%US$335.00US$220.00n/a29
Nov ’25US$266.57
US$289.83
+8.7%
10.5%US$335.00US$220.00n/a29
Oct ’25US$295.14
US$275.34
-6.7%
9.4%US$315.00US$205.00n/a29
Sep ’25US$267.55
US$272.32
+1.8%
9.2%US$313.00US$205.00n/a28
Aug ’25US$256.26
US$270.00
+5.4%
10.1%US$313.00US$205.00n/a29
Jul ’25US$267.74
US$270.66
+1.1%
10.4%US$318.00US$205.00n/a29
Jun ’25US$285.29
US$270.66
-5.1%
10.4%US$318.00US$205.00n/a29
May ’25US$271.17
US$265.86
-2.0%
10.0%US$305.00US$205.00n/a29
Apr ’25US$258.24
US$242.79
-6.0%
10.5%US$285.00US$173.00n/a30
Mar ’25US$252.42
US$240.61
-4.7%
9.9%US$270.00US$173.00n/a29
Feb ’25US$234.90
US$229.22
-2.4%
10.9%US$270.00US$173.00n/a29
Jan ’25US$215.03
US$217.17
+1.0%
9.3%US$264.63US$171.00n/a30
Dec ’24US$210.07
US$216.20
+2.9%
8.6%US$264.63US$190.00n/a30
Nov ’24US$190.56
US$217.36
+14.1%
9.4%US$270.00US$190.00US$266.5730
Oct ’24US$203.05
US$245.50
+20.9%
7.6%US$280.00US$210.00US$295.1430
Sep ’24US$220.52
US$245.54
+11.3%
7.2%US$280.00US$210.00US$267.5530
Aug ’24US$224.19
US$245.75
+9.6%
7.2%US$280.00US$210.00US$256.2631
Jul ’24US$221.10
US$253.35
+14.6%
6.2%US$280.00US$214.00US$267.7431
Jun ’24US$206.32
US$254.48
+23.3%
6.2%US$280.00US$214.00US$285.2931
May ’24US$238.95
US$253.68
+6.2%
6.1%US$280.00US$214.00US$271.1731
Apr ’24US$235.04
US$245.97
+4.6%
6.3%US$273.00US$210.00US$258.2431
Mar ’24US$225.76
US$243.58
+7.9%
6.6%US$270.00US$190.00US$252.4231
Feb ’24US$230.03
US$242.34
+5.4%
7.0%US$270.00US$186.00US$234.9029
Jan ’24US$224.97
US$229.71
+2.1%
9.6%US$270.00US$186.00US$215.0328
Dec ’23US$224.63
US$227.85
+1.4%
9.5%US$270.00US$186.00US$210.0727
Nov ’23US$220.53
US$227.48
+3.2%
9.4%US$270.00US$186.00US$190.5627

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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