Tractor Supply Company

NasdaqGS:TSCO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$28.2b

Tractor Supply Valuation

Is TSCO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TSCO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TSCO ($53.92) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($53.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TSCO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TSCO?

Key metric: As TSCO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TSCO. This is calculated by dividing TSCO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TSCO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.9x
EarningsUS$1.11b
Market CapUS$28.21b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TSCO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TSCO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.8x
ULTA Ulta Beauty
16.6x-0.7%US$19.7b
DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods
15.3x3.7%US$17.7b
CHWY Chewy
34.3x-0.5%US$13.3b
BBWI Bath & Body Works
9.2x0.2%US$8.4b
TSCO Tractor Supply
25.9x6.9%US$28.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TSCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x) compared to the peer average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TSCO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$14.44m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.08xn/aUS$168.03k
FTCH.Q Farfetch
n/an/aUS$395.00
TSCO 25.9xIndustry Avg. 16.3xNo. of Companies10PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TSCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TSCO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TSCO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.9x
Fair PE Ratio17x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TSCO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TSCO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$52.81
US$67.38
+27.6%
72.8%US$325.00US$44.00n/a29
Dec ’25US$56.73
US$57.93
+2.1%
10.5%US$67.00US$44.00n/a29
Nov ’25US$53.31
US$57.97
+8.7%
10.5%US$67.00US$44.00n/a29
Oct ’25US$59.03
US$55.07
-6.7%
9.4%US$63.00US$41.00n/a29
Sep ’25US$53.51
US$54.46
+1.8%
9.2%US$62.60US$41.00n/a28
Aug ’25US$51.25
US$54.00
+5.4%
10.1%US$62.60US$41.00n/a29
Jul ’25US$53.55
US$54.13
+1.1%
10.4%US$63.60US$41.00n/a29
Jun ’25US$57.06
US$54.13
-5.1%
10.4%US$63.60US$41.00n/a29
May ’25US$54.23
US$53.17
-2.0%
10.0%US$61.00US$41.00n/a29
Apr ’25US$51.65
US$48.56
-6.0%
10.5%US$57.00US$34.60n/a30
Mar ’25US$50.48
US$48.12
-4.7%
9.9%US$54.00US$34.60n/a29
Feb ’25US$46.98
US$45.84
-2.4%
10.9%US$54.00US$34.60n/a29
Jan ’25US$43.01
US$43.43
+1.0%
9.3%US$52.93US$34.20n/a30
Dec ’24US$42.01
US$43.24
+2.9%
8.6%US$52.93US$38.00US$56.7330
Nov ’24US$38.11
US$43.47
+14.1%
9.4%US$54.00US$38.00US$53.3130
Oct ’24US$40.61
US$49.10
+20.9%
7.6%US$56.00US$42.00US$59.0330
Sep ’24US$44.10
US$49.11
+11.3%
7.2%US$56.00US$42.00US$53.5130
Aug ’24US$44.84
US$49.15
+9.6%
7.2%US$56.00US$42.00US$51.2531
Jul ’24US$44.22
US$50.67
+14.6%
6.2%US$56.00US$42.80US$53.5531
Jun ’24US$41.26
US$50.90
+23.3%
6.2%US$56.00US$42.80US$57.0631
May ’24US$47.79
US$50.74
+6.2%
6.1%US$56.00US$42.80US$54.2331
Apr ’24US$47.01
US$49.19
+4.6%
6.3%US$54.60US$42.00US$51.6531
Mar ’24US$45.15
US$48.72
+7.9%
6.6%US$54.00US$38.00US$50.4831
Feb ’24US$46.01
US$48.47
+5.4%
7.0%US$54.00US$37.20US$46.9829
Jan ’24US$44.99
US$45.94
+2.1%
9.6%US$54.00US$37.20US$43.0128
Dec ’23US$44.93
US$45.57
+1.4%
9.5%US$54.00US$37.20US$42.0127

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 23:32
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/28
Annual Earnings2023/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Tractor Supply Company is covered by 58 analysts. 31 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Deborah CiervoArgus Research Company
Jeff BlackAvondale Partners
Peter BenedictBaird