Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$3.7b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.49 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Tractor Supply is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the 28 analysts covering Tractor Supply are now predicting revenues of US$16.7b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 12% to US$2.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$16.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.34 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Tractor Supply

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$63.33, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Tractor Supply analyst has a price target of US$70.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$47.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Tractor Supply shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Tractor Supply's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 6.6% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.0% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.1% per year. So although Tractor Supply is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Tractor Supply going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tractor Supply has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.