US$4.40: That's What Analysts Think Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPWH) Is Worth After Its Latest Results

It's been a sad week for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPWH), who've watched their investment drop 19% to US$3.08 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$244m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.48 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the five analysts covering Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings provided consensus estimates of US$1.19b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 6.0% decline over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 66% to US$0.28. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$1.20b and US$0.06 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The consensus price target fell 7.4% to US$4.40per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings analyst has a price target of US$5.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.6% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.