Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) After Its Annual Report

Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Pool reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$5.3b and statutory earnings per share of US$11.30, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Pool after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Pool

Following last week's earnings report, Pool's ten analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$5.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$11.38, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.95 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$363, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Pool at US$390 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$325. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Pool is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Pool's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Pool's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Pool is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$363, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Pool analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Pool that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.