We Wouldn't Be Too Quick To Buy Monro, Inc. (NASDAQ:MNRO) Before It Goes Ex-Dividend

Monro, Inc. (NASDAQ:MNRO) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next three days. Typically, the ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date which is the date on which a company determines the shareholders eligible to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. Accordingly, Monro investors that purchase the stock on or after the 3rd of December will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 17th of December.

The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.28 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$1.12 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Monro has a trailing yield of 4.0% on the current stock price of US$28.21. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. As a result, readers should always check whether Monro has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut.

See our latest analysis for Monro

Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. Monro distributed an unsustainably high 130% of its profit as dividends to shareholders last year. Without extenuating circumstances, we'd consider the dividend at risk of a cut. A useful secondary check can be to evaluate whether Monro generated enough free cash flow to afford its dividend. Fortunately, it paid out only 38% of its free cash flow in the past year.

It's disappointing to see that the dividend was not covered by profits, but cash is more important from a dividend sustainability perspective, and Monro fortunately did generate enough cash to fund its dividend. If executives were to continue paying more in dividends than the company reported in profits, we'd view this as a warning sign. Extraordinarily few companies are capable of persistently paying a dividend that is greater than their profits.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Companies with falling earnings are riskier for dividend shareholders. If business enters a downturn and the dividend is cut, the company could see its value fall precipitously. Readers will understand then, why we're concerned to see Monro's earnings per share have dropped 18% a year over the past five years. Ultimately, when earnings per share decline, the size of the pie from which dividends can be paid, shrinks.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Monro has delivered an average of 9.8% per year annual increase in its dividend, based on the past 10 years of dividend payments. That's intriguing, but the combination of growing dividends despite declining earnings can typically only be achieved by paying out a larger percentage of profits. Monro is already paying out 130% of its profits, and with shrinking earnings we think it's unlikely that this dividend will grow quickly in the future.

The Bottom Line

Has Monro got what it takes to maintain its dividend payments? It's never great to see earnings per share declining, especially when a company is paying out 130% of its profit as dividends, which we feel is uncomfortably high. However, the cash payout ratio was much lower - good news from a dividend perspective - which makes us wonder why there is such a mis-match between income and cashflow. It's not the most attractive proposition from a dividend perspective, and we'd probably give this one a miss for now.

Although, if you're still interested in Monro and want to know more, you'll find it very useful to know what risks this stock faces. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Monro you should know about.

Generally, we wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see. Here's a curated list of interesting stocks that are strong dividend payers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.