How Lower Regulatory Risk and Strong Growth in Mexico Could Shape MercadoLibre’s (MELI) Investment Narrative

• Mexico’s antitrust authority completed an investigation into MercadoLibre, finding competition barriers for sellers but imposing no corrective actions or sanctions, while the company’s Mexican commerce business posted strong growth in the second quarter of 2025.
• This regulatory outcome lowers immediate legal risk for MercadoLibre and highlights its ability to maintain robust performance even under scrutiny.
• We’ll examine how a reduction in regulatory risk, paired with strong business growth in Mexico, may influence MercadoLibre’s investment story.

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MercadoLibre Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in MercadoLibre, you need to believe in the company's ability to scale its marketplace and fintech ecosystem across Latin America, driving sustained growth even when competition and regulatory scrutiny intensify. The recent antitrust outcome in Mexico removes an immediate legal overhang but does not materially change the short-term focus on top-line growth and margin pressure from ongoing investments, credit risk and cost management remain the biggest factors to watch.

Among recent announcements, Q2 2025 results are particularly relevant: MercadoLibre reported strong revenue growth in Mexico, the exact market under regulatory review, while maintaining overall positive momentum in its commerce business. This underscores that the current regulatory findings have not impeded the company's main growth catalysts driven by e-commerce penetration and payments adoption in key geographies.

By contrast, investors should be aware that even as regulatory risk recedes in Mexico, exposure to rising credit losses in MercadoLibre’s rapidly expanding lending portfolio still…

Read the full narrative on MercadoLibre (it's free!)

MercadoLibre's narrative projects $46.9 billion revenue and $5.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 24.8% yearly revenue growth and a $3.0 billion earnings increase from $2.1 billion today.

Uncover how MercadoLibre's forecasts yield a $2894 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirty two members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate MercadoLibre’s fair value between US$1,333 and US$3,406 per share. With opinion split and regulatory pressure now easing, you can see how expectations for ongoing credit risk and profitability shape a wide range of market forecasts.

Explore 32 other fair value estimates on MercadoLibre - why the stock might be worth as much as 39% more than the current price!

Build Your Own MercadoLibre Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your MercadoLibre research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MercadoLibre research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MercadoLibre's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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