Leslie's, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for Leslie's, Inc. (NASDAQ:LESL) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 10% to US$2.48. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.13 per share on revenues of US$1.3b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Leslie's

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Leslie's are now predicting revenues of US$1.36b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Leslie's is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.065 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$3.36, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Leslie's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$4.00 and the most bearish at US$2.25 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Leslie's' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.9% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Leslie's is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Leslie's. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Leslie's. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Leslie's going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Leslie's (2 are a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.