Groupon, Inc. Just Reported A Surprise Profit And Analysts Updated Their Estimates

There's been a major selloff in Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 24% to US$8.31. Revenues of US$114m missed analyst estimates by a little bit, but statutory earnings beat expectations by an impressive , coming in at US$0.33 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Groupon

Following last week's earnings report, Groupon's three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$491.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 7.4% to US$0.45 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$542.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.93 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 22% to US$15.33. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Groupon analyst has a price target of US$21.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would also point out that the forecast 1.3% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 35% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Groupon to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Groupon going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Groupon (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.