At US$7.69, Is It Time To Put Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN) On Your Watch List?

Groupon, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRPN), is not the largest company out there, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Let’s examine Groupon’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

See our latest analysis for Groupon

What Is Groupon Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 15% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Groupon today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $9.06, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Groupon’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Groupon generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 94% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Groupon. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in GRPN’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below its fair value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GRPN, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Groupon at this point in time. For example, Groupon has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

If you are no longer interested in Groupon, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.