Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTRN) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTRN) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to US$23.00 in the past week. The results overall were pretty much dead in line with analyst forecasts; revenues were US$186m and statutory losses were US$0.42 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Citi Trends

Following last week's earnings report, Citi Trends' three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$752.9m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.02. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$760.8m and losses of US$0.96 per share in 2025. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a pronounced increase to its losses per share forecasts.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$31.00, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Citi Trends, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$35.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 0.4% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.7% per year. It's pretty clear that Citi Trends' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Citi Trends. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Citi Trends' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Citi Trends going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Citi Trends you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.