Earnings Update: Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to US$2.77 in the past week. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 2.9%to hit CN¥2.2b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Baozun's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥10.3b in 2026. This reflects a credible 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Baozun forecast to report a statutory profit of CN¥2.64 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.74 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Baozun

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$4.47, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Baozun at US$6.74 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.70. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Baozun is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Baozun's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 10% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Baozun is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Baozun. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Baozun's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Baozun going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.