Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ASO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.9b

Academy Sports and Outdoors Valuation

Is ASO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ASO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ASO ($55.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($78.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ASO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ASO?

Key metric: As ASO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ASO. This is calculated by dividing ASO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ASO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.6x
EarningsUS$452.98m
Market CapUS$3.89b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ASO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ASO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.6x
SIG Signet Jewelers
7.2x11.6%US$3.5b
UPBD Upbound Group
20.5x28.9%US$1.7b
FIVE Five Below
21.8x8.2%US$5.8b
BBWI Bath & Body Works
9x0.2%US$8.4b
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors
8.6x4.0%US$3.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ASO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Specialty Retail Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TKLF Tokyo Lifestyle
2xn/aUS$15.71m
SSOK Sunstock
0.8xn/aUS$556.28k
MASN Maison Luxe
0.09xn/aUS$168.03k
EXPR.Q Express
0.000004xn/aUS$749.00
ASO 8.6xIndustry Avg. 16.1xNo. of Companies11PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the US Specialty Retail industry average (16.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ASO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ASO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.6x
Fair PE Ratio13.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ASO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ASO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$55.95
US$62.53
+11.8%
13.6%US$85.00US$51.00n/a19
Dec ’25US$49.25
US$62.44
+26.8%
14.4%US$85.00US$50.00n/a18
Nov ’25US$50.67
US$63.44
+25.2%
12.8%US$85.00US$51.00n/a18
Oct ’25US$56.30
US$63.72
+13.2%
12.7%US$85.00US$51.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$55.48
US$63.17
+13.9%
13.9%US$85.00US$46.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$51.40
US$65.06
+26.6%
12.2%US$85.00US$53.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$50.66
US$66.00
+30.3%
12.2%US$85.00US$53.00n/a18
Jun ’25US$57.69
US$75.78
+31.4%
8.3%US$85.00US$58.00n/a18
May ’25US$56.70
US$76.64
+35.2%
6.5%US$85.00US$65.00n/a19
Apr ’25US$66.77
US$76.79
+15.0%
6.2%US$85.00US$65.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$75.16
US$73.00
-2.9%
9.9%US$85.00US$55.00n/a17
Feb ’25US$64.36
US$72.00
+11.9%
10.0%US$85.00US$55.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$66.00
US$67.00
+1.5%
11.6%US$85.00US$55.00n/a18
Dec ’24US$55.17
US$66.17
+19.9%
12.2%US$85.00US$55.00US$49.2518
Nov ’24US$44.58
US$66.94
+50.2%
11.2%US$85.00US$55.00US$50.6717
Oct ’24US$47.27
US$69.06
+46.1%
10.6%US$85.00US$56.00US$56.3017
Sep ’24US$53.69
US$69.06
+28.6%
10.6%US$85.00US$56.00US$55.4817
Aug ’24US$58.63
US$67.44
+15.0%
11.2%US$85.00US$55.00US$51.4016
Jul ’24US$54.05
US$67.75
+25.3%
11.3%US$85.00US$55.00US$50.6616
Jun ’24US$48.61
US$76.07
+56.5%
5.9%US$85.00US$70.00US$57.6915
May ’24US$61.00
US$76.33
+25.1%
6.4%US$85.00US$70.00US$56.7015
Apr ’24US$65.25
US$75.36
+15.5%
6.1%US$85.00US$70.00US$66.7714
Mar ’24US$59.33
US$69.08
+16.4%
8.4%US$80.00US$58.00US$75.1613
Feb ’24US$59.39
US$67.75
+14.1%
9.2%US$80.00US$58.00US$64.3612
Jan ’24US$52.54
US$67.75
+28.9%
9.2%US$80.00US$58.00US$66.0012
Dec ’23US$49.48
US$60.83
+22.9%
12.0%US$76.00US$53.00US$55.1712

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 07:17
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/11/02
Annual Earnings2024/02/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is covered by 29 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter BenedictBaird
Justin KleberBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research