Earnings Beat: Amazon.com, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.5% to US$229 in the week after its latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$638b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Amazon.com surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$5.53 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Amazon.com

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Amazon.com from 56 analysts is for revenues of US$699.1b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 9.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 13% to US$6.31. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$706.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.22 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 5.0% to US$262despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Amazon.com's earnings by assigning a price premium. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Amazon.com analyst has a price target of US$306 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$207. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Amazon.com's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 32 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Amazon.com's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Amazon.com going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Amazon.com Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.