Evaluating VICI Properties After New Casino Partnerships and a Recent 6.9% Price Dip

• Curious if VICI Properties is a hidden gem or just another name in real estate? Let’s take a closer look and see if the current price really reflects its true worth.
• While the stock has dipped 6.9% over the last month and 6.6% over the past year, it is still up 47.4% over the last five years. This may suggest resilience and long-term potential.
• Recent news includes the company continuing to expand its portfolio of gaming and experiential properties, as well as securing major new partnerships with casino operators. These moves appear to have sparked renewed investor interest and could influence future growth prospects.
• VICI Properties scores a 6/6 on our valuation checks, meaning it comes up undervalued in every metric we track. Next, we will break down what those valuation approaches mean, and stay tuned for the end, where we will share an additional way to understand a stock’s fair value.

VICI Properties delivered -6.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Specialized REITs industry.

Approach 1: VICI Properties Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by forecasting future adjusted funds from operations and discounting these expected cash flows back to today’s terms using a required rate of return. For VICI Properties, this approach helps gauge what the business might truly be worth beyond short-term market swings.

Currently, VICI Properties generates $2.37 Billion in free cash flow. Analysts forecast steady growth, projecting free cash flow to rise to $2.98 Billion by 2028, with long-term estimates extending out to nearly $4.0 Billion over ten years. The methodology weighs more reliable, near-term analyst estimates first and then extends the growth curve based on historical and industry trends.

The bottom line indicates a DCF-based fair value of $54.92 per share. Compared to the company's current share price, this suggests the stock is trading at a 47.5% discount to its intrinsic value. This could indicate a significant undervaluation based on future cash generation potential.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests VICI Properties is undervalued by 47.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 927 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for VICI Properties.

Approach 2: VICI Properties Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is widely used for valuing profitable companies, as it compares a company's current share price to its earnings per share. For enterprises like VICI Properties that consistently generate profits, the PE multiple helps investors quickly gauge how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings.

What counts as a "normal" or "fair" PE ratio varies by company and sector, often influenced by expectations for future growth and the level of risk. Higher growth and lower risk can justify a higher PE, while greater risk or sluggish growth tends to pull the fair number down. For context, the average PE ratio across the Specialized REITs industry sits at 17.05x; VICI Properties' peers are trading at an average of 57.38x.

VICI Properties is currently priced at 11.06x earnings, a notable discount to both the industry average and peer group. Simply Wall St’s unique Fair Ratio for VICI, calculated at 32.06x, incorporates factors like growth forecasts, profit margins, company size, and specific risks. This Fair Ratio is more useful than a simple peer or industry comparison because it is calibrated to reflect VICI's unique profile rather than just the averages of other firms.

With a current PE of 11.06x compared to the Fair Ratio of 32.06x, VICI Properties appears significantly undervalued using this approach.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1433 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your VICI Properties Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a structured story you create about a company by tying together your personal forecast for its revenues, earnings, and margins, and translating that story into a fair value estimate.

Unlike a single number or static model, Narratives let you connect VICI Properties’ actual business story, such as market trends, management strategy, or evolving industry risks, directly to your investment assumptions and valuation outlook. They turn numbers into meaning, helping you see if your view of the company supports a buy, hold, or sell decision based on how your Fair Value stacks up against today’s Price.

Best of all, Narratives are easy to create or explore right on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share and update their perspectives dynamically when new news or results arrive. No one Narrative is ‘right’ for VICI Properties. For example, one investor may believe its diversified experiential assets will drive robust earnings (supporting a higher fair value around $44), while another may worry about online gaming risks and see it worth closer to $34 based on different revenue and margin expectations.

This flexibility empowers you to build conviction in your own insights, react swiftly to new information, and make smarter, more confident investment decisions.

Do you think there's more to the story for VICI Properties? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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