Seritage Growth Properties (NYSE:SRG) adds US$47m to market cap in the past 7 days, though investors from five years ago are still down 76%

Simply Wall St

Seritage Growth Properties (NYSE:SRG) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been stomach churning. In fact, the share price has tumbled down a mountain to land 77% lower after that period. It's true that the recent bounce could signal the company is turning over a new leaf, but we are not so sure. The important question is if the business itself justifies a higher share price in the long term.

The recent uptick of 12% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a lot at historical fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Seritage Growth Properties

Seritage Growth Properties wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

Over half a decade Seritage Growth Properties reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 20% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. So it's not altogether surprising to see the share price down 12% per year in the same time period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Of course, the poor performance could mean the market has been too severe selling down. That can happen.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NYSE:SRG Earnings and Revenue Growth March 1st 2022

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 3.3% in the last year, Seritage Growth Properties shareholders lost 52%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 12% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Seritage Growth Properties you should be aware of, and 2 of them make us uncomfortable.

We will like Seritage Growth Properties better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Seritage Growth Properties might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.