Simon Property Group (SPG): Assessing Valuation After Steady Multi‑Year Total Return Performance

Recent performance and why Simon Property Group is on investors’ radar

Simon Property Group (SPG) has quietly outpaced many REIT peers over the past three years, with total returns climbing roughly 80%, even as near term moves have been choppy.

See our latest analysis for Simon Property Group.

Over the past year, Simon Property Group’s share price return has been steadily positive rather than explosive, and its multi year total shareholder return signals that long term momentum is still very much intact.

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With steady growth, a solid dividend and shares still trading below some valuation estimates, investors now face a key question: Is Simon Property Group quietly undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future expansion?

Most Popular Narrative: 5.8% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value set at $193.45 against Simon Property Group’s last close of $182.17, the implied upside leans modestly in investors’ favor.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $184.05 for Simon Property Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $225.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $169.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of earnings path and margin profile could justify this premium retail thesis, even with only modest growth baked in, and higher future multiples assumed? The narrative leans on a specific profit trajectory, conservative revenue lines, and a valuation multiple usually reserved for market favorites. Want to see how those moving parts fit together and what has to go right for this fair value to hold?

Result: Fair Value of $193.45 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks like rising refinancing costs and sustained retail bankruptcies could pressure occupancy, earnings growth, and ultimately challenge the current undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Simon Property Group narrative.

Build Your Own Simon Property Group Narrative

If you would rather test the assumptions firsthand and shape your own view of Simon’s story, you can build a fresh narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Simon Property Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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