Essex Property Trust (ESS): Is the Recent 11% Slide Creating a 10% Undervaluation Opportunity?

Essex Property Trust (ESS) has drifted lower this year, leaving the stock down about 11% over the past 12 months even as its long term 3 year total return remains comfortably positive.

See our latest analysis for Essex Property Trust.

The recent slide in Essex’s 1 year total shareholder return contrasts with its strong 3 year total shareholder return of 35.16%, suggesting near term sentiment has cooled even as the longer term momentum remains firmly positive around the current 257.57 dollar share price.

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With earnings under modest pressure but analysts still seeing upside to fair value, the key question now is whether Essex is quietly trading below its intrinsic worth or if the market is already pricing in its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.1% Undervalued

Against the last close of 257.57 dollars, the most followed narrative points to a higher fair value, framing Essex as modestly mispriced today.

Limited new multifamily supply in the company's core markets (especially on the West Coast) is expected to sharply decline by 35% in the second half of 2025, which should reduce competitive pressure and drive higher occupancy and rent growth, positively impacting revenues and net operating income.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how slowing supply, shifting margins and a surprisingly rich future earnings multiple still add up to upside potential? See which assumptions really power that valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $286.63 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, heavy exposure to California and Seattle, along with lingering rent softness in Southern California, could easily sap demand and undercut that upside case.

Find out about the key risks to this Essex Property Trust narrative.

Build Your Own Essex Property Trust Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer to lean on your own analysis, you can build a fresh narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Essex Property Trust research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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